Two Serie A fixtures on Monday offer some sharp parlay value. Here are the best combinations from Cremonese-Lazio and Roma-Fiorentina.
Serie A Monday Parlay Picks - May 4, 2026
Monday delivers a tasty Serie A double-header with two fixtures that set up nicely for parlay builders. We have Cremonese vs SS Lazio at 17:30 UTC and AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina at 19:45 UTC. Let's dig into the standings context, market signals, and the best combinations available.
Match Analysis
Cremonese vs SS Lazio (17:30 UTC)
Cremonese are in serious trouble. Sitting 18th with just 28 points from 34 games, they have a goal difference of -25 and look almost certain to be relegated. They have managed only 6 wins all season and are one of the weakest sides in the division. SS Lazio, meanwhile, sit 9th on 48 points - a mid-table finish that is respectable but hardly inspiring. Lazio have 12 wins, 12 draws, and 10 defeats, giving them a positive goal difference of +4. They are a far superior side to Cremonese and with nothing to lose at this stage, expect Lazio to play freely.
The market has Lazio as clear favourites at +150 on FanDuel - that reflects a reasonable implied probability of around 40%, but given the gulf in class and Cremonese's dire season, that price looks generous. Cremonese at home are +200 (Fanatics) but there is little reason to back a side staring down relegation against a quality Lazio outfit.
The total line sits at 2.5. With Cremonese's leaky defence and Lazio's motivation to put points on the board, Over 2.5 goals at +110 on Bally Bet offers solid value. BTTS Yes at -116 on FanDuel is also plausible given Cremonese's attack can still create chances even in a losing effort.
AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina (19:45 UTC)
This is the more intriguing contest. AS Roma sit 6th on 61 points - they are a strong side with 19 wins and a goal difference of +19, well in the hunt for European spots. ACF Fiorentina are down in 15th on 37 points with a negative goal difference of -7. The gap in quality is substantial, and Roma at home should be expected to dominate.
Roma are priced at -164 on BetMGM - a short price but arguably warranted given the home advantage and the standings gap. Fiorentina at +460 on FanDuel is the kind of underdog price you can sprinkle in parlays for value, but as a straight pick it is a stretch. The draw at +310 (BetMGM) is another option worth noting.
The total here is also set at 2.5 with Over priced at -120 on BetMGM. Roma have been scoring regularly, and Fiorentina have been involved in reasonably open matches this season. BTTS Yes at -110 on BetMGM is a near coin-flip and reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Fiorentina can get on the scoresheet.
Value Flags
- Lazio +150 (FanDuel) - Against a relegation-threatened Cremonese side, this feels like a generous price. Implied probability of ~40% undersells Lazio's quality advantage.
- Over 2.5 Cremonese vs Lazio +110 (Bally Bet) - Positive expected value given Cremonese's defensive frailties and Lazio's attacking intent.
- BTTS Yes Roma vs Fiorentina -110 (BetMGM) - Roma are prolific enough and Fiorentina have shown they can still score even in difficult games this season.
Recommended Parlay Combinations
Parlay 1 - The Quality Double (+264 combined)
This parlay leans on the two stronger sides doing the business at home and away.
- Lazio to win - +150 (FanDuel)
- Roma to win - -164 (BetMGM)
Combined odds: approximately +150 x -164 = around +160 to +175 depending on your sportsbook's parlay calculator. Lazio are hugely underpriced given the quality gap, and Roma at home against a struggling Fiorentina side are the bankers of the night. A two-leg parlay keeps variance low while boosting the return beyond the individual prices. Estimated combined odds: around +170.
Parlay 2 - Goals Galore Double (+242 combined)
For bettors who want to ride the scoring action across both fixtures:
- Over 2.5 Goals - Cremonese vs Lazio - +110 (Bally Bet)
- BTTS Yes - AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina - -110 (BetMGM)
Cremonese's defence has been one of the worst in the division all season, and Lazio have the quality to exploit it. Roma are an attacking side who should push on at home, and while Fiorentina are struggling, they have enough creativity to find a goal of their own. Combining two goal-focused legs gives you a fun, action-packed parlay. Estimated combined odds: around +210 to +225.
Parlay 3 - The Value Three-Legger (+500 combined)
For those chasing a bigger payout, this three-leg combination mixes result and goals markets:
- Lazio to win - +150 (FanDuel)
- Over 2.5 Goals - Cremonese vs Lazio - +110 (Bally Bet)
- Roma to win - -164 (BetMGM)
Two Lazio legs and one Roma leg. Lazio winning a game that also goes over 2.5 goals against a team that has conceded 25+ more than they have scored is a very achievable combination. Roma at home to round off the ticket adds the anchor. Three legs, all grounded in the form data, with a combined payout that rewards the risk appropriately. Estimated combined odds: around +480 to +510.
Final Thoughts
Monday's Serie A slate is not glamorous, but the value is real. Cremonese are a side running on empty at the bottom of the standings, and Lazio at +150 looks like the standout price of the evening. Roma's home fixture against a mid-table-to-bottom Fiorentina side should also yield a result for the home team. Mix and match the parlays above based on your risk appetite - the goals markets add spice across both games.
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