Arsenal host rock-bottom Burnley on Monday night. Here are the best parlay combos and value bets from the live market odds.
Arsenal vs Burnley – Monday Night English Premier League Parlay Picks
There is only one English Premier League fixture on the Monday night slate, but it is a juicy one for parlay builders. Arsenal welcome Burnley to the Emirates with the title race still alive — the Gunners sit first on 79 points, just two ahead of Manchester City with two games remaining. Burnley, meanwhile, are already relegated in 19th place on just 21 points from 36 games, with a goal difference of -36. This is as lopsided a matchup as the Premier League serves up, and the markets reflect that emphatically.
Market Overview
The headline odds tell the story immediately. Arsenal are priced at -1000 with BetMGM — an implied probability of roughly 91%. Burnley are a massive +3000 at Caesars to cause one of the great upsets, while the draw sits at +1200 at Fanatics. These are essentially exhibition-level lines for the away side. The total is set at 3.5, with Bally Bet offering Under 3.5 at -108 and Over 3.5 at -118 — a razor-thin line that reflects genuine market uncertainty about whether Arsenal rack up a cricket score or control things more calmly. BTTS Yes is a surprisingly generous +160 at BetMGM, while BTTS No sits at -182 at FanDuel.
Key Angles
- Arsenal's title motivation: With Manchester City just two points behind, Mikel Arteta's side cannot afford to drop points. Expect a focused, attacking performance at the Emirates.
- Burnley's defensive fragility: A goal difference of -36 and only 4 wins all season tells the full story. Burnley have shipped goals for fun and arrive here with nothing to play for in terms of survival.
- Over 3.5 goals value: Arsenal have the firepower to blow past a Burnley defence that concedes at will. At -118 on Bally Bet, Over 3.5 is a fair price for a team chasing a title who will be pushing hard from the first whistle.
- BTTS Yes value flag: At +160, BTTS Yes at BetMGM looks generous. Burnley have managed to score in several games despite their struggles, and with Arsenal potentially easing off once ahead, there is a legitimate path to Burnley finding a consolation. However, Burnley's attack is the worst in the league by a distance, so this carries real risk — treat it as a value flier rather than a banker.
Recommended Parlays
Parlay 1 – The Banker Combo (2-Leg)
This parlay combines the two most logical outcomes for a match of this nature — Arsenal winning and the game going Over 3.5 goals. With a relegated side visiting a title-chasing Arsenal, both legs have strong logical backing.
- Arsenal to win (1X2) – -1000 at BetMGM
- Over 3.5 goals – -118 at Bally Bet
The combined odds on this two-legger will be modest given Arsenal's massive favourite price, but it serves as the safe, high-probability combination for the night. Expect combined odds in the range of approximately -115 to -105 depending on your book's parlay engine — the real value here is the high hit rate, not the return.
Parlay 2 – Value Hunter Combo (2-Leg)
For bettors looking for a more rewarding return, this parlay leans into the Over 3.5 goals market and pairs it with BTTS Yes, which is the standout value price on the board tonight.
- Over 3.5 goals – -118 at Bally Bet
- BTTS Yes – +160 at BetMGM
Combined odds here land around +120 to +130 — a positive return on a two-legger that requires Arsenal to win comfortably with Burnley grabbing at least one along the way. It is worth noting that if Arsenal score four or more, Burnley only need one to land both legs simultaneously. This is the best value combination on tonight's slate.
Parlay 3 – The Long Shot Three-Legger
For those who enjoy a speculative ticket, this three-leg parlay stacks the most likely outcomes and adds BTTS Yes as the booster leg. It requires Arsenal to win, the game to go over 3.5 goals, and both teams to find the net.
- Arsenal to win (1X2) – -1000 at BetMGM
- Over 3.5 goals – -118 at Bally Bet
- BTTS Yes – +160 at BetMGM
Combined odds here come in around +125 to +140. Given Arsenal's -1000 price barely moves the needle, the BTTS Yes leg at +160 is doing most of the lifting. A scoreline like 4-1 or 5-1 cashes all three legs simultaneously — entirely possible given Arsenal's need to win and Burnley's defensive record.
Best Value Flag
BTTS Yes at +160 (BetMGM) is the standout value on the board tonight. The implied probability is just 38.5%, yet Burnley have scored in a number of matches despite their poor season. With Arsenal likely to push hard and potentially leave space late on, a consolation goal for Burnley is far from impossible. This price looks too generous and is worth including in any parlay or as a single.
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